Beyond Market Data

The 30-year fixed rose two basis points to 7.60% and the 15-year two to 7.22%. FHA added one to 7.25%, VA was unchanged at 7.25%, and Jumbo climbed six to 7.66%. The 7/6 ARM eased two to 6.85%. Prime holds at 7.00% as of September 28.

The National Association of Realtors reported August existing-home sales fell 2.0% to a 3.98 million annual rate. Inventory rose 3.2% to 1.62 million homes, a 4.9-month supply, and the median price was $429,100, up 1.6% from a year ago. Pending sales rose 0.3% in August but ran 4.7% below last year.

The Census Bureau put August housing starts at a 1.28 million annual rate, down 2.6%; single-family starts rose 7.6% to 918,000 while multifamily fell 21.7%. NAHB's builder confidence index dropped three points to 32 in September, with 38% of builders cutting prices.

Associated Builders and Contractors said construction input prices rose 1.2% in August and stand about 8.9% above a year ago, with steel, copper wire and switchgear up 10% or more. Framing lumber, per Madison's index, was $506.76 per thousand board feet on September 25, down from $514 a week earlier.

Order switchgear and other electrical long-lead items now, and write steel and copper escalation clauses into new contracts. With existing-home supply at 4.9 months and builders discounting, price spec homes against resale competition, not last spring's comps. Stop assuming a refinance at these rates: underwrite the exit at today's levels.

The 30-year fixed rose 19 basis points to 7.45% and the 15-year 23 to 7.10%. FHA climbed to 7.05% and VA to 7.07%, Jumbo rose 15 to 7.55%, while the 7/6 ARM eased six to 6.70%. Freddie Mac's weekly average crossed 7% for the first time since January 2025, at 7.03%. Prime holds at 7.00% as of September 21.

The Census Bureau said August new-home sales rose 6.4% to a 684,000 annual rate, well above the 615,000 consensus. The median new-home price was $393,700, down 5.8% from a year ago.

New homes for sale held at 483,000, and supply eased to 8.5 months from 9.0. On the commercial side, Associated Builders and Contractors reported its backlog indicator rebounded to 8.5 months in August, up half a month from July.

Framing lumber remains soft: Madison's index was $514 per thousand board feet on September 18, and futures traded near $537 on September 24, close to nine-month lows. Steel, copper and electrical gear remain the pressure points, per ABC's August input-price report.

Stop underwriting exits on a refinance at today's rates; model the permanent loan at current levels or hold. Price-cut-driven sales show buyers will act at the right number, so set spec pricing to move inventory rather than wait. Lock lumber packages while prices sit near nine-month lows.

The 30-year fixed eased two basis points to 7.17% and the 7/6 ARM two to 6.72%. FHA and VA each slipped a basis point to 6.80% and 6.82%; the 15-year held at 6.83% and Jumbo at 7.35%. Prime holds at 7.00% as of September 21, so floating construction lines did not reprice.

NAR reported August existing-home sales fell 2% to a 3.98 million annual rate. Inventory rose to 1.62 million homes, a 4.9-month supply and the highest since November 2015, while the median price reached $429,100, up 1.6% from a year ago.

The Census Bureau said August housing starts fell 2.6% to 1.275 million, though single-family starts rose 7.6% to 918,000. Permits slipped 2.7% to 1.394 million. The NAHB/Wells Fargo index fell three points to 32; 38% of builders cut prices and 66% used incentives.

Associated Builders and Contractors found construction input prices rose 1.2% in August and are 8.9% higher than a year ago, with iron and steel, softwood lumber, switchgear and copper wire each up more than 10%. Madison's framing lumber index eased to $514 per thousand board feet on September 18.

Re-price every open bid against today's steel, copper and electrical costs, not spring quotes. Order switchgear and wire now, where escalation is steepest. With a 4.9-month resale supply and incentives at 66%, underwrite spec sales with a longer absorption period and a concession line.

The 30-year fixed eased three basis points to 6.88% and the 15-year to 6.48%. FHA sits at 6.44% and VA at 6.46%, the cheapest on the board; the 7/6 ARM slipped to 6.47%. Jumbo went the other way, up five basis points to 7.05%. Prime holds at 6.75% as of September 2 — floating construction lines did not reprice.

NAR's Pending Home Sales Index fell 2.3% in July to 71.2, the lowest reading since January and down 2.2% year over year, with all four regions declining. Inventory held at a 4.6-month supply and the median existing-home price at $431,400.

The Census Bureau reported September 1 that private residential construction spending fell to an $859.0 billion annual rate in July, down 1.3% for the month and 7.3% from a year ago — a fourth straight decline, led by single-family at -3.2%. Private nonresidential rose 0.4% to $755.2 billion, its fourth straight gain.

Lumber futures traded at $574 per thousand board feet Thursday, up 1.9% on the day but still about 2% below a month ago. The framing lumber composite NAHB tracks fell to $521.35 the week of August 28, a third straight weekly decline. BLS JOLTS put construction job openings above 300,000 at the end of June, up 36% year over year.

Point capital at what is getting funded: nonresidential spending is in its fourth month of growth while single-family is in its fourth month of decline. Lock framing budgets against the cash-market softness rather than waiting on futures, which have already turned back up. Staff crews before you bid — with openings up 36%, labor is the schedule risk, not lumber.

The 30-year fixed rose six basis points to 6.81% and the 15-year to 6.35%. FHA and VA both sit at 6.37%, jumbo at 6.90%, and the 7/6 ARM at 6.33% — the cheapest on the board. Prime holds at 6.75% as of August 26, so floating construction lines did not reprice this week.

The National Association of Realtors reported July existing-home sales at a 4.06 million annual pace, down 1.7% from June. Inventory stands at 1.54 million units — a 4.6-month supply — with the median price at $434,100, up 2.0% from a year ago.

The Census Bureau put July housing starts at 1.24 million annualized, down 12.4% from June, with single-family off 9.9% to 808,000. Permits ran the other way, up 5.0% to 1.44 million. NAHB builder confidence ticked up a point to 35 in August, a sixteenth straight month below 40.

Lumber traded near $559 per thousand board feet Thursday, roughly 12% below a month ago and close to a five-month low, pressured by US–Canada trade friction and soft single-family demand. Producer price data showed construction inputs about flat in July but still 7.4% above a year ago, with steel and aluminum carrying the increase.

Buy the lumber-heavy scopes now and hold metal and mechanical packages for firm bids — the softness is in wood, not steel. Underwrite carrying cost at today's 6.81%, not at a cheaper exit. And book subcontractors while the permit-to-start gap is this wide: peers are authorizing work they haven't started.