Rates tick higher across the board while lumber holds near a five-month low
The 30-year fixed rose six basis points to 6.81% and the 15-year to 6.35%. FHA and VA both sit at 6.37%, jumbo at 6.90%, and the 7/6 ARM at 6.33% — the cheapest on the board. Prime holds at 6.75% as of August 26, so floating construction lines did not reprice this week.
The National Association of Realtors reported July existing-home sales at a 4.06 million annual pace, down 1.7% from June. Inventory stands at 1.54 million units — a 4.6-month supply — with the median price at $434,100, up 2.0% from a year ago.
The Census Bureau put July housing starts at 1.24 million annualized, down 12.4% from June, with single-family off 9.9% to 808,000. Permits ran the other way, up 5.0% to 1.44 million. NAHB builder confidence ticked up a point to 35 in August, a sixteenth straight month below 40.
Lumber traded near $559 per thousand board feet Thursday, roughly 12% below a month ago and close to a five-month low, pressured by US–Canada trade friction and soft single-family demand. Producer price data showed construction inputs about flat in July but still 7.4% above a year ago, with steel and aluminum carrying the increase.
Buy the lumber-heavy scopes now and hold metal and mechanical packages for firm bids — the softness is in wood, not steel. Underwrite carrying cost at today's 6.81%, not at a cheaper exit. And book subcontractors while the permit-to-start gap is this wide: peers are authorizing work they haven't started.